Geographical Engineering of Territory

Geographical Engineering of Territory

Effective earthquake resilience planning based on building and human vulnerability estimation (Case study: Tabriz metropolis)

Authors
1 PhD Student of Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.
Abstract
Introduction: Natural hazards, especially earthquakes, have the potential to become devastating disasters for human communities in the absence of risk reduction systems and cause a lot of financial and human losses. In order to increase the capacity to cope with earthquake hazards, increasing urban resilience has recently become a key priority for most governments.

Purpose of the research: The present study was written with the aim of planning effective earthquake resilience based on estimating structural and human vulnerability.

Methodology: The research method is applied in terms of purpose and analytical-exploratory in nature. Also, to analyze the information has been used RADIUS and PROMETHEE models.

Geographical area of research: Tabriz, the capital of East Azarbaijan Province, is one of the largest cities in Iran. It is the largest city in the northwest region of the country and is known as the administrative, communication, commercial, political, industrial, and cultural hub of the region.

Result and Discussion: Research findings show that most of the building damage and human casualties caused by possible earthquakes are related to the peripheral areas, especially the north and south of the city. On the other hand, based on the extracted model, 12,544 buildings are at risk of destruction, about 48% of which are in regions 10 and 1. The number of injured in the possible earthquake is also estimated at 42,636 and the number of dead is estimated at 5,823. Finally, based on the RADIUS model and the positive, negative and net currents of the PROMETHEE model, regions 10, 1, 3, and 8 will have the most and zones 9, 5, and 2 the least physical and human damage, respectively, in the event of a possible earthquake.

Conclusion: Considering the high vulnerability of Tabriz metropolis to a possible earthquake, it is necessary to apply 10 management principles of the 2005 Hyogo Framework (HFA) in the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) in order to make the city resilient.
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  • Receive Date 03 June 2025
  • Revise Date 06 August 2025
  • Accept Date 13 August 2025
  • Publish Date 13 August 2025