Geographical Engineering of Territory

Geographical Engineering of Territory

Systematic analysis of influencing factors on the hydropolitical relations of border and common rivers of Iran and Iraq

Authors
Zakeyeh Aftabi 1
Morad Kaviani rad 2
Mohammad Kohani 3
1 Ph.D. Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Khwarazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Khwarazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Ph.D. student, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.
10.22034/jget.2023.424044.1519
Abstract
Introduction: Security, stability, development and prosperity are on the agenda of all political systems that have found a direct and increasing link with available water resources. During the past century, the access of political-spatial units to the limited fresh water resources has been involved in many fundamental bottlenecks and has led to a range of hydropolitical relations of political-spatial units on the side of common watersheds from cooperation to conflict.

The purpose of the research: The main purpose of this article is to identify the influencing factors on the hydropolitical relations of the border rivers and common water resources of the two neighboring countries of Iran and Iraq by using systemic thinking.

Research methodology: The methodology governing the research is descriptive-analytical. The input data required for the research has been collected by the library and field method and analyzed with the system thinking approach. In this regard, Vansim software has been used for dynamic modeling. In order to rank the identified factors, it is taken from the combined model of Fuzzy Aras and Fuzzy Copperas.

The geographical scope of the research: The geographical scope of this research is the catchment area of the western border rivers.

Findings and Discussion: The findings of the research showed that socio-cultural, economic, geographical, political-legal, environmental and technological subsystems are effective on the hydropolitical relations of border rivers and shared water resources of Iran and Iraq as a single system. The effect of each of the above factors on the hydropolitical relations of the border rivers and common water resources of Iran and Iraq and the effect and causal relationships of each of these factors on each other and on the whole system were measured. The three factors of the water shortage crisis in Iraq with a weight of 73.55, the geographical location of Iraq with a weight of 73.47 and the severe reduction of the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates by Turkey with a weight of 73.44 as the effective drivers on the hydropolitical relations between Iran and Iraq in Border rivers and common water sources were recognized.

Conclusion: The results of the research showed that the six mentioned subsystems can never act separately from each other and their connection will lead to the creation of a single final system for the formation of hydropolitical relations of the border and common rivers between the two countries of Iran and Iraq.
Keywords
hydroelectric stimulus
Turkish dam constructions on the Tigris and Euphrates headwaters
systemic thinking
Subjects
اکبری، مهری و صیاد، وحیده. (1400). تحلیل مطالعات تغییر اقلیم در ایران، پژوهش‌های جغرافیای طبیعی، 53(1)، 37-74.
صدرانیا، حسن؛ کاویانی­راد، مراد و نصری فخر داود، صدیقه. (1401). تاثیر بحران کم آبی بر مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و عراق.   آمایش سیاسی فضا، 4(2)، 112-125.
کاویانی­راد، مراد. (1398). هیدروپلیتیک سویه‌ها و رویکرها. (چاپ اول). تهران: پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی.
میان­آبادی، حجت و امینی، اعظم. ( 1398). در هم‌تنیدگی آب، سیاست و محیط­زیست در حوضه آبریز دجله و فرات. ژئوپلیتیک، 15(54)، 54- 86.
نصری­فخر داود، صدیقه؛ کاویانی­راد، مراد؛ صدرانیا، حسن و حسین حمید. ( 1400). چالش‌های سیاستگذاری منابع آب ایران و عراق. سیاستگذاری عمومی، 8(4)، 237- 262.
Akbary, M., Sayad, V. (2021). Analysis of climate change studies in Iran. Physical geography research quarterly, 53(1), 37- 74. (In Persian).
Albert, E., Ptie, T., Whitney, E., Moore, G. (2021). The relationship of motivational climates mindsets, and goal orientations to grit in male adolescent scoccer players. International journal of sport and exercise psychology, 19(2). 265-268.
AL-Madhhachi, A.T., mutter, G.M., & Hasan, M.B. (2019). predicting mechanistic detachment model due to lead- contaminated soil traqi stabiliizeres. KSCE Journal of civil eneineering,23(1), 2898-2970.
AL-Zamili, H.S., AL-Lami, A. (2018). Atmospheric sciences assessment of some climate indices in Iraq. Journal of applied and advanced research, 3(4). 96-104.
Aviram, R., Katz, D., Shmueli, D. (2014). desalination as a game- changer in transboundary hydro politics. water policy, 16(4). 609-624.
Bahrini, A., Riggs, R., & Esmaeili, M. (2022). Social choice rules, fallback bargaining and related games in common resource conflicts, journal of hydrology, 602(126663), 1-18.
Baranyai, G. (2020). European water law and hydro politics. springer cham: Switzerland.
Barlow, M., Zaitchik, B., Paz, S., Black, E., Elansi, J & Hell, A. (2016). A review of drought in the middle east and southwest Asia, Journal of climate. 29(33). 8547- 8574.
Bazkar, M., Nabaavi, E., Eslamian, S. (2013). System dynamic approach to hydro- politics in hitman transboundary river basin from sustainability perspective. International journal of hydrology and technology, 3(4), 378-398.
Bendor, T. K., Kaza, N. (2012). A theory of spatial system archetypes. System dynamics review, 28(2), 109-130.
Bernauer, T., Bohmelt, T., Buhaug, H., Gleditsch, N.P., Tirbaldos, T., Weibust, E.B., Wischnath, G. (2012). Water related intrastate conflict and cooperation (WARICC): A new event database. International interactions, 38(4). 529-545.
Chabuk, A., AL-Madhlom., AL-Maliki, A., Al-Ansari, N., Hussain, H.M., Laue, J. (2020). Watwr quality assessment along Tiris river (Iraq) using quality index (WQI) and GIS software. Arabian journal of Geosciences, 13(654). 1-23.
Chellancy, B. (2015). Water, peace and war: confronting the global water crisis. Rowman and Littlefield: united states.
Dalby, S. (2003). environmental insecurities: geopolitics, resources and conflict. economic and political weekly, 38(29), 5073-5079.
De Stefano L, Edwards P, De Silva L, Wolf A T (2010) Tracking cooperation and conflict in international basins: Historic and recent trends. Water Policy 12(6): 871–884.
Dinar, S., (2014). the geographical dimensions of hydro politics: international freshwater in the middle east, north Africa, and central Asia. Eurasian geography and economics, 53(1), 115-142.
Dolatyar, M., Gray, T.S. (2000). the politics of water scarcity in the middle east. environmental politics, 9(35), 65-88.
Dombrowsky I (2009) Revisiting the potential for benefit sharing in the management of trans-boundary rivers. Water Policy11(2):125–140.
Dowlatabadi, N., Banihabib, M.E., Rozbahani, A., Randhir, T.O. (2020), Enhanced GMCR model for resolving conflicts in a transboundary wetland, science of the total environment, 744(20), 140816.
Dowlatabadi, N., Banihabib, M.E., Rozbahani, A., Randhir, T.O. (2020), Enhanced GMCR model for resolving conflicts in a transboundary wetland, science of the total environment, 744(20), 140816. htt Wolf, A.T. (1999). The transboundary freshwater dispute database. Water, 24(2), 160-163.
Elhance, A. (1999). hydropolitics in the third world: conflict and cooperation in the international river basin. washington, DC: USIP.
Fox, C., Reo, N., Turner, D.A., Dituri, F., Fessell, B., Jenkins, J., Johnson,A., Rakena, T., Riley, C., Turner, A., Williams,J., & Wilson,M. (2016). the river is us; the river is in our veins: re- defining river restoration in three indigenous communities. sustainability science, 12, 521-533.
Fox., Sneddon, C. (2007). transboundary river basin agreements in the Mekong and Zambezi basin: enhancing environmental security or securitizing the environment?  international environmental agreements: politics, law and economics, 7(1), 237-261.
Grey, D., Sadooff, C.W. (2003). Beyond the river the benefits of cooperation on international river. Water science and technology, 47(6). 91-96.
Guo, B.H., Yiu, T.W., Gonzalez, V.A. (2015). identifying behavior patterns of construction safety using system archetypes. accident analysis & prevention. 80(1), 125-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aa.2015.04.008.
IPCC, (2022).  Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3056 pp.
Kaviani Rad, M. (2019). Hydro politics, strains and approaches: Research in statute of strategic studies. (In Persian).
Kaviani Rad, M., sadrania, H., & nasri fakhredavood, s. (2023). Water diplomacy role in easing Iran -Iraq in easing Iran- Iraq hydro political tension. Geopolitics, 18(4), 71-93.
Kazemi, M., Bozorg-Haddad, O., Fallah-Mehdipour, E & Chu, X. (2021). Optimal water resources allocation in transboundary river basins according to hydro political consideration. Environment development and sustainability, 24(1), 1188-1206.
Kehl, R. (2011). hydropolitical complexes and asymmetrical power: conflict, cooperation and governs of international river system. journal of world- systems research, 17(1), 218-235.
Lateef, zahraa Q., AL- Madhhachi, a., & sachit, dawood.E.(2020). Evaluation of water quality paramenters in shatt al- Arab, southern Iraq, using spatial analysis. Hydrology, 7(79). 1-18.
Madani, K., & Hipel, K.W. (2011). non- cooperative stability definition for strategic analysis of generic water resources conflicts. Water resources management, 25(8): 1949-1977.
Mandi, C. (2019). Accidental adversaries: the enigma of sustained cooperation. Managing complexity in social system, 946(1), 107-112..
McCaffrey, S. C. (1996). the harmon doctrine one hundered years later buried, not praised. natural resources journal, 36(3), 549-590.
Mianabadi H, Amini A (2019) complexity of water, politics, and environment in the euphrates and tigris river basin. Geopolitics 15(54): 54- 86. (In persian).
Mianabadi, H., Amini, A. (2019). complexity of water, politics, and environment in the euphrates and tigris river basin. Geopolitics, 15(54), 54- 86.
Nandalal, K. D.W., & Simonovic, S.P. (2003). resolving conflicts in water sharing: a systemic approach. Water policy, economics, and systems analysis, 39(12).
Nasri Fakhr Davood, S., Kaviani Rad, M., & Sadrania, A. (2022). Challenges of waters resources policy in Iran and Iraq. Journal of public policy, 7(4), 237- 262. 10.22059/JPPOLICY.2021.8481 (In Persian).
Obertreis, J., Mollinga, P., Bichsel, C. (2016). Water, infrastructure and political rule: introduction to the special issue. Water alternatives, 9(2). 168-181.
Orouji, H., Bozorg- Haddad, O., Fallah- Mehdipour, E & Marioo, M. A. (2014). extraction of decision alternatives in projectives in project management: application of hybrid pso-sfla. journal of management in Engineering, 30(1), 50-59. https:// doi.org/10. 1061/(ASCE) ME.
Ria S P, Wolf A T, Sharma N (2017) Hydro politics and hydropolitical dynamics between India and Nepal: an event-based study. Water Policy, 19(5): 791–819.
Robbins, P. (2003). beyond ground truth: GIS and the environmental knowledge of herders, professional foresters, and other traditional communities, human ecology, 31(1), 233-253.
Rogers, S., & Crow-Miller, B. (2017). The politics of water: a review of hydropolitical frameworks and their application in China. Water, 4(6), 1-18. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1239.
Rogers, S., Barnett, J., Webber, M., Finalayson, B., Wang, M. (2016). Governmentality and the conduct of water: china south- north water transfer project. Transactions of the institute of british geography, 41(4). 429-441.
Sadrania, H., Kaviani rad, M., & Nasri fakhrdavod, S. (2022). The impact of water shortage arises on Iran- Iraq hydro political relations political organizing of space. Political organizing of space. 4(2). 112-125. 20.1001.1.26455145.2022.4.2.5.7. (In Persian).
Sarsour, A., Nagabhatla, N., (2022). options and strategies for planning water and climate security in the occupied palestinian territories. water, 14(3418), 1-24.
Shahbazbegian, M., Noori, R. (2022). hydropolical system archetypes: feedback structures, physical environments, unintended behavoriors and a diagnostic checklist. hydrology, 9 (12). 207. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9120207.
Shahbazbegian, N.r., Turton, A., Mousavi Shafaee, S.M. (2016). hydropolitical self- organization theory; system dynamic to analyze hydropolitics of Helmand transboundary. water policy, 18(5), 1088-1119. https://doi.org/10.216/wp.2016.204.
Sirin, C.V. (2011). Scarcity- induced domestic conflict: examining the interactive effects of environmental scarcity and ethnic Population pressures. Civil war, 13(2). 122-140.
Sneddon, C. (2015). Concrete revolution: large dams, cold war geopolitics and the US bureau of reclamation. university of Chicago press: Chicago. 
Sneddon, C., Fox, C. (2006). Rethinking transboundary waters: A critical hydropolitics of the Mekong basin. Political Geography, 25(2), 181-202.
Solgi, M., Bozorg Haddad, O., & Lojiciga, H. A. (2020). A multi objective optimization model for operation of intermittent water distribution networks. Water supply, 20(7), 2630-2647.
Stahl K (2005) Influence of hydroclimatology and socioeconomic conditions on water-related international relations. Water International 30(3):  270–282.
Tir, J., & Ackerman, J. (2009). politics of formalized cooperation. journal of conflict resolution, 46(5), 623-640.
Vlachos, D., Georgiadis, P., Iakovou, E. (2007). a system dynamics model for dynamic capacity planing of remanufacturing in closed-loop supply chains. computers and operations research, 34(1), 367-394.
Waterbury, J. (1994). Transboundary water and the challenge of international cooperation in the middle east. Cambridge: Harvard university.
Webber, M., Crow- miller, B& Torkman, J. (2017). The south- north Wter transfer project: remaking the geography of china. Regional studies, 51(3). 370-382.
Wei, Y., wei, J., Wu, Sh., Yu, D., Ghoreish, M., Lu, Y., Souza, F., Sivapaalan, M., Tian, F. (2022). Asocio hydrological framework for undersboundary rivers. hydrology and earth system sciences. 26(8). 2131-2146.
Winz, I., Brierley, G., Trowsdale, S. (2009). the use of system dynamics simulation in water resourcs management. water resources management, 23(1), 1301-1323.
Wolf A T (2007) Shared waters: Conflict and cooperation. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 32(1): 241–269
Wolf, A. T. (2009). Hydropolitical vulnerability and resilience along international waters. UNEP, Nairobi: kenya.
Wolf, A.T. (1999). The transboundary freshwater dispute database. Water, 24(2), 160-163.
Wolf, A.T. (2007). Shared waters: Conflict and cooperation. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 32, 241–269.
Xia,Q., Qian, C., Du, D. B & Zhang, Y. (2021). conflict or cooperation? How does precipitation change affect transboundary hydropolitics? Journal of water and climate change, 12(5), 1930-1943.
Yu, S & Lu, H. (2018). an integrated of water resources optimization allocation based on projection pursuit model- grey wolf optimization method in a transboundary river basin. Journal of hydrology, 559. 159-165.
Zeiton, M., & Warner, J. (2006). Hydro-hegemony- A framework for analysis of trans-boundary water conflicts. Water Policy, 8(5), 435–460. https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2006.054.
Zeitoun, M., Mirumachi, N., Warner, J. (2011). Transboundary water interaction II: The influence of soft power. International environmental agreements: politics, law and economics, 11(3). 159-178.
Zhou, Y., Guo, S., Xu, C.Y., Liu, D., Chen, L., & Wang, D. (2015). integrated optimal allocation model for complex adaptive system of water resources management (II): case study.  journal of hydrology, 531(3).

  • Receive Date 06 November 2023
  • Revise Date 22 December 2023
  • Accept Date 29 December 2023
  • Publish Date 22 May 2025