Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Ph.D. Candidate in Economy, Mashhad Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran
2
Professor Department of Economy, Mashhad Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran
3
assistant Professor Department of Economy, Mashhad Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran
4
assistant Professor Department of Agricultural Economy, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
10.22034/jget.2023.297140.1331
Abstract
In this study, the effects of shocks caused by climate change scenarios in the form of three scenarios: IPCC1, IPCC2 And IPCC3 on the value added of different sectors of the Iranian economy with emphasis on the agricultural sector (value added of the sectors: industry and mining, services and agriculture, And the added value of the sub-sectors: crop production (agriculture and horticulture), livestock production, fishing and forestry) as well as household welfare were examined. For this purpose, the social accounting matrix of 1390 was used. Also, the dynamic recursive dynamic general equilibrium (RDCGE) model was used to analyze the data. The results showed that climate change reduces the added value of agriculture and industry and mining and increases the value added of services and reduces household welfare. In addition, among the three climate change scenarios: IPCC1, IPCC2 and IPCC3, respectively, have the greatest impact on the value added of the sectors and subsectors studied. Studies also show that government financial expenditures to adapt to climate change in the agricultural sector in the form of 27 programs and 324 projects amounting to 47.4 thousand billion rials during the year 99. Finally, increasing water productivity in the agricultural sector, increase The knowledge and awareness of farmers and policy makers about the effects of climate change, empowerment of local communities with emphasis on environmental protection, linking specific financial resources to cope and adaptation to the effects of climate change with conventional agricultural resources, etc. were suggested.
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